Photo : Aurielien Morissard / AP Photo
13 July 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #568
War in Ukraine: Day 503
By Sreeja JS
War on the Ground
On 12 July, Fumio Kishida, Japan's Prime Minister announced that Tokyo would provide an Drone detection system to Kyiv. In March, Kishida promised USD 30 million as nonlethal defence equipment assistance to Ukraine through the NATO trust fund. The drone detection system would be provided through this framework.
On 12 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President met Olaf Scholz Germany's Chancellor in Vilnius. Following the meeting, Zelenskyy announced in his Telegram channel that agreements with Germany have been reached on additional Patriot launchers and missiles for them.
On 12 July, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister posted in Telegram that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have restrained the advance of Russian troops in Kupyansk, Lymansk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk. According to her Ukrainian troops advanced in Southern Bakhmut. In Southern Ukraine, the offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are underway. She noted that due to the destruction of many warehouses containing ammunition, Russian attacks had decreased.
On 12 July the Institute for the Study of War, quoting the report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Ukrainian counter-offensive operations are underway in Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk. According to the report, Ukrainian troops achieved partial success along the Bila Hora-Andriivka and Bila Hora-Kurdyumivka lines in the southwest of Bakhmut and in Berdyansk. They have also advanced near Orikkai-Vasylivna in the northwest of Bakhmut, southwest of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk, and south of Orikhiv in the west of Zaporizhzhia.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 12 July, RT reported on Russia's Foreign Ministry's statement on the NATO Summit that was held in Vilnius. The report said that NATO intends to use Ukraine as a proxy for the endless hybrid war while expanding beyond the North - Atlantic into the Middle East, North Africa and Asia-Pacific. The statement concluded that Russia would respond "in a timely and appropriate manner, using all means and methods at our disposal."
On 12 July, TASS reported that Alexey Meshkov, Russian Ambassador to Paris condemned France's decision to send 50 SCALP long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv. He said: "What the French government did deserves the strongest condemnation."
On 12 July, TASS reported on Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council's comment that Russia's special military operation would continue with its goal unchanged. He added that one of the goals is the rejection of NATO membership by Kyiv.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 12 July, G7 countries presented a plan to organize bilateral, long-term security commitments to help Kyiv in its war against Russia. According to Politico, the US, the UK, France and Germany have been discussing with Kyiv how to create a common framework for all countries willing to provide financial and military aid. CNN outlined the three goals of the declaration. The first goal is to ensure a “sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future.” The declaration would look forward to strengthening Ukraine’s “economic stability and resilience and providing technical and financial support for Ukraine’s immediate needs. The report also added that the declaration would enable Kyiv to implement effective reform agenda to advance the good governance necessary for its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
On 12 July, CNN reported on Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia’s support for the US decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. She said: “We have to do everything to help Ukraine as long as it takes. And of course, when there is no more ammunition to give except cluster bombs, I think we have to give those as well.” She also expressed her support for Ukraine’s NATO membership bid and said that the opportunity may come after the war is over.
On 12 July, Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO chaired the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. He highlighted that NATO and Ukraine would meet in the Council “to discuss and decide as equals” afterwards. Later, he said that removing the Membership Action Plan (MAP) would change Ukraine’s membership path from a two-step process to a one-step process making Kyiv “closer to NATO than ever before.”
References
“Japan to Provide Ukraine with Drone Detection System,” Nippon.com, 12 July 2023
“Zelensky says agreement reached with Germany on additional Patriot launchers, missiles,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2023
“Defense forces of Ukraine restrained the advance of Russian troops today in the Kupyan, Lyman, Avdiiv and Marin directions,” Telegram, 12 July 2023
“RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 12, 2023,” Institute for the Study of War, 12 July 2023
“Moscow reacts to NATO summit,” RT News, 12 July 2023
“Paris getting more and more indirectly involved in conflict with Moscow — Russian envoy,” TASS, 12 July 2023
“Russia to continue special operation in Ukraine, goals unchanged — Medvedev,” TASS, 12 July 2023
Laura Kayali, “G7 countries pledge long-term support for Ukraine,” Politico.eu, 12 July 2023
Tara Subramaniam, Aditi Sngal, Adrienne Vogt, Tory B Powell, Maureen Chowdhury, Elise Hammond and Sana Noor Haq, “July 12, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news,” CNN, 12 July 2023
“Secretary General concludes historic NATO Summit in Vilnius,” nato.int, 12 July 2023
IN BRIEF
By Prerana P
INTERNATIONAL
Biden celebrates Finland’s NATO bid and ensures guaranteed partnership
On 13 July, Joe Biden visited Europe showcased the international alliance, midst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He stated that the US and the NATO member has emerged: “more united that ever.” Although Ukraine strived to be a part of the NATO military alliance, Biden assured long-term security and support without Kyiv’s entry. He added: “understand that this fight is not only a fight for the future of Ukraine,” and guaranteed itself as the reliable partner to NATO. US appreciated the Nordic nations and highlighted the effectiveness of Finland’s bid. Biden met with Zelenskyy and further reported that Zelenskyy: “ended up being very happy.” Biden embraced the concept of multilateralism, thereby building strong coalitions with the international communities. (“NATO alliance 'more united than ever,' says Biden, as he celebrates newest member Finland,” Euronews, 14 July 2023)
FRANCE
Modi and Macron sign deal over Rafales and Scorpene submarines to India's Navy
On 13 July, Prime Minister Modi visited President Macron as a guest of honour on the annual Bastille parade. France hoped to strengthen cooperation on various topics which includes military sales, and strategic Indo-Pacific region. During his speech, President Macron praised India calling the country a “key partner.” Further, Macron along with Modi would preside the upcoming annual military parade which marks France’s national day. Further, India’s Defence Acquisition Council has approved Rafales for the India's Navy, purchased three Scorpene submarines, developed by Spain and France, and the prices are well negotiated with the French. Further, in the Washington trip, the Human rights organizations questioned Modi’s status towards the country’s human right cases, to which Modi answered: “Democracy runs in our veins.” (Elaine Ganley, “India’s Modi is guest of honor at Paris Bastille Day parade as Macron rebuffs human rights critics,” AP, 14 July 2023)
GERMANY
Government draws up plan to limit engage with China
On 13 July, the government submitted a 64-page document detailing its strategy to interact with China. The document is part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition's pledge to design a comprehensive China strategy” in 2021. China is Germany’s biggest trade partner, and therefore ties with China are important. However, China’s refusal to condemn Russia for the Ukraine invasion, along with its growing assertiveness has been concerning to Germany. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated: “For Germany, China remains a partner, competitor and systemic rival, but the aspect of systemic rivalry has in recent years increasingly come to the fore…Anyone who listens to China knows with what self-confidence it will decisively influence the development of our world…China has changed and so our China policy must change too.” however, the government reaffirmed that with respect to economies, they were not looking at the “decoupling” of the two economies.’ (Geir Moulson, “Germany presents long-awaited strategy on China, stresses economic security,” AP, 13 July 2023)
SWEDEN
Supreme Court likely to dismiss the extradition of Turkish
On 13 July, the Supreme Court in Sweden opposed extradition of two Turkish citizens by Ankara. The court added that “the requirement of dual criminality” has not been met. Turkey demanded extradition and stated that the two people had joined the US based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen. The Sweden’s Supreme Court has added that the extradition might lead to risk towards persecution. The issue of extraditions was considered one of the key demands for Turkey, in order to accept Sweden’s bid into NATO alliance. Erdogan claimed Gulen for its failed coup and accused his network to be a terrorist organization. Sweden-Turkey has exchanged increased trade and investment agreements, yet Turkey and Hungary remain the only two countries which are yet to ratify Sweden’s bid into the NATO military alliance. (“Sweden's top court bars Turkey's extradition requests,” Deutsche Welle, 13 July 2023)
THE UK
No econmic growth reported in the last three months
On 13 July, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that over the last three months, Britain’s economy has “shown no growth.” The monthly GDP growth fell by 0.1 per cent in May, despite a slight 0.2 per cent rise in April. The ONS reported that for the month of May, factory output saw the biggest fall by 0.6 per cent, construction fell by 0.2 per cent and the services sector remained stagnant. The Scottish National Party responded to the data, saying; “The UK’s stagnating economy has continued to slip further and further behind that of the EU’s, as a direct result of the damaging Brexit.” Meanwhile, according to the European Commission, the EU’s economy is growing faster than the predicted growth levels, with member states achieving a 0.1 per cent average growth in 2023. (Sudesh Baniya, Joshua Askew, “Stagnant UK economy lagging behind EU, new figures show,” Euronews, 13 July 2023)
REGIONAL
EU to remove farm and fish import barriers from Japan
On 13 July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU has decided to lift the restrictions on farm and fish imports that it had imposed on Japan following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. The announcement was made after the 29th EU-Japan summit in Brussels where Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida interacted with the European Commission president. Leyen stated: “We have taken this decision based on science and based on the proof of evidence and based on the assessment of the International Atomic Energy Agency and we also agreed to solve several other trade issues in the course of this year, in particular the access for our agricultural products to the Japanese market.” (Christopher Pitchers, “EU to lift Fukushima restrictions on food imports imposed after nuclear accident,” Euronews, 13 July 2023)
ENERGY
Scotland’s first commercial windfarm to be re-powered
On 13 July, BBC reported that Scotland’s first and oldest commercial wind farm, Hagshaw Hill, will begin shutting down turbines to begin “re-powering.” Scottish Power Renewables which owns Hagshaw Hill, will construct larger turbines that reach almost 140m in height. The new turbines are projected to be able to harness 10 times the power generated by the older turbines, with a capacity of six megawatts. The proposal to repower the wind farm was first submitted in December 2018, and approved in February 2020. Scottish Power Renewables CEO Charlie Jordan expressed his hope for the initiative, stating: “We've been operating this site for the best part of 30 years. We know everything about the site from an environmental perspective and we need to take the information and use it to accelerate planning of repowering projects.” ( Douglas Fraser, “Hagshaw Hill: Turbines dismantled at Scotland's oldest wind farm,” BBC, 13 July 2023)